Spain Survive Belgium Scare to Reach First World Cup Semifinal Since 2010 — But the Merino Dependency is Real

By Sportsoya | July 11, 2026

Spain vs Belgium 2026 had no business being as close as it was. Spain dominated possession, created the better chances, and carried a superior xG of 2.08 compared to Belgium’s 0.38. By almost every measurable metric they were the better team for the vast majority of 90 minutes at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.

And yet, with five minutes remaining, the score was 1-1 and Belgium were still very much alive.

Then Mikel Merino came off the bench. One minute and 57 seconds later, Spain were through. For the second consecutive knockout game, a substitute had bailed La Roja out in the final moments. Spain face France in Dallas on Tuesday in their first World Cup semifinal since they won the whole thing in 2010.

They should be worried about how they got here.

How It Unfolded

Spain controlled the early tempo and took a deserved lead in the 30th minute. Fabián Ruiz pounced on a loose ball in the area and finished — a goal that rewarded the better side and settled early nerves in a stadium that had been expecting Spain to dominate.

But Belgium hit back almost immediately before half time. Charles De Ketelaere powered home a header from Timothy Castagne’s delivery to make it 1-1 in the 41st minute the first goal Spain had conceded in the entire World Cup 2026. Their run of clean sheets was over. Suddenly the game was wide open.

The second half was tense and tactical. Spain created chances Lamine Yamal tested Thibaut Courtois repeatedly and Mikel Oyarzabal saw two attempts well saved but Belgium’s defensive organization held firm. Then in the 71st minute came the moment that changed the game entirely.

Courtois went down clutching his left thigh and could not continue. Backup goalkeeper Senne Lammens came on a player who had made just four senior international appearances in his career. Belgium had already lost captain Youri Tielemans before kickoff with a hamstring injury suffered in the warm-up. They were now without their two most important players.

Spain sensed the opportunity but still could not convert until Merino arrived.

In the 88th minute Pau Cubarsí struck a low shot that Lammens failed to hold, spilling the ball directly into Merino’s path. The substitute tapped home from close range. One minute and 57 seconds after coming on. Game over.

Spain held out for the remaining ten minutes. Belgium are eliminated. La Roja are through.

The Merino Problem Spain Cannot Ignore

Here is the uncomfortable truth behind Spain’s progression to the last four.

Merino has now scored decisive late goals in two consecutive knockout matches against Portugal in the round of 16 and now against Belgium here. Both times he came off the bench. Both times Spain’s starting forwards had been unable to find the winner across 80-plus minutes of football. Both times it took a substitute midfielder to rescue them.

That is not a sustainable formula. Against France who have beaten every team they have faced convincingly, with Mbappé and Dembélé in devastating form Spain cannot rely on late substitutes to manufacture moments their starting eleven could not.

The root cause is structural. Manager Luis de la Fuente has made a deliberate philosophical choice no traditional centre forward, relying instead on movement, technical quality and volume of chances to generate goals. Oyarzabal is a converted winger. Ferran Torres has spent most of his career playing off a striker. De la Fuente has a genuine target forward in Borja Iglesias and has given him one single minute of football across the entire tournament.

The philosophy has worked barely. Spain have scored 11 goals from an xG of 2.08 against Belgium alone, suggesting their underlying chance creation is genuinely elite. The finishing, however, has been inconsistent. And against the tournament’s most defensively organized side after themselves, inconsistent finishing means extra time at best and elimination at worst.

De la Fuente’s Boldest Call — Fabián Over Pedri

Before discussing Spain’s vulnerabilities it is worth acknowledging one decision that worked brilliantly.

De la Fuente started Fabián Ruiz ahead of Pedri arguably the best midfielder in world football in a call that raised eyebrows before kickoff. Pedri has been exceptional throughout this tournament. Leaving him on the bench against Belgium felt like a significant gamble.

It paid off immediately. Fabián’s goal in the 30th minute justified the selection entirely. Moreover it speaks to something significant about the culture de la Fuente has built that a player of Pedri’s status can be omitted without creating controversy or disruption. That kind of internal trust is what separates tournament teams from collections of individual stars.

Belgium Deserve More Credit Than They Are Getting

Before Spain’s victory is fully celebrated it is worth acknowledging what Belgium produced on Friday despite their circumstances.

They lost Tielemans before a ball was kicked. They lost Courtois midway through the second half. Despite losing both their captain and their goalkeeper to injury they pushed Spain to the final minutes, created genuine chances on the counter — Kevin De Bruyne going closest with a curling effort — and were ultimately eliminated by a goalkeeper error rather than being outplayed.

Their tournament exit ends the Golden Generation chapter definitively. De Bruyne, Courtois, Tielemans, Romelu Lukaku — the group that promised so much and delivered a third-place finish in 2018 now closes its World Cup story without the one result that would have defined them. It is a painful ending but an honest one.

What Awaits — Spain vs France in Dallas

As we have followed throughout this World Cup 2026 from Bouaddi’s stunning Morocco debut to Kane’s heroics at the Azteca this tournament has rewarded teams with clarity and punished those relying on individuals to save them at the last moment.

Spain vs France on Tuesday in Dallas will be the defining game of the tournament so far. France have Mbappé and Dembélé in the form of their lives. Spain have the best midfield in the world and a defensive structure that kept clean sheets in every group game. Something has to give.

But if Spain arrive at that semifinal still depending on Merino to conjure winning moments in the final minutes, France’s clinical attack will not give them the time or the margin to find them. De la Fuente needs answers before Tuesday. The question is whether he has them.

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